Hillary Clinton's Strong Bid

For the first time in 80 years, the White House has no candidate in the next presidential elections. Vice President Cheney is not running and President Bush has no favourites. Given Bush's unpopularity and the sagging fortunes of the war in Iraq, it will be an uphill battle for any Republican to win the next election. That makes Hillary Rodham Clinton the lead candidate in 2008. Mrs. Clinton has the best campaign organization in place of all the Democratic and Republican candidates and has raised enough money to take on all the others. She may decide to turn down the option of public funds for the general election which no candidate has ever done. Every observer of US politics should read Gail Sheehy's 1999 classic book, "Hillary's Choice". What defines her is intense political ambition. She has weathered numerous marital scandals and political crises with her husband Bill and never took her eyes of the price of high office. In contrast to George W. Bush, Hillary is a policy person. She lives for issues and policies. Remember her failed attempt to implement universal health care in the early 1990s? But the story gets complicated because on issues Hillary is really two persons. During her first political life, extending through her husband's presidency, Mrs. Clinton was an unambiguous Liberal who stood for abortion rights, legal equality for same-sex marriage, women's rights, affirmative action and a large role for the federal government in social and economic programs. After she became a Senator, she turned sharply to the center. She supported Bush's war on terror and the Iraq campaign and became a fiscal moderate. She stopped speaking out on social issues. With a vast network, strong organization, and lots of money already raised, she is hard to beat in the Democratic primaries. John Edwards seems the strongest contender. The Democratic Party establishment has been trying to fix this problem (whoever wins Iowa gets immediate press attention) by letting California, Illinois, New Jersey and Florida have their primaries much earlier than normal. Especially California and New Jersey are expected to select large amounts of delegates for Hillary. Could Barack Obama upset this calculation? Obama has an enormous organizational hurdle to climb and has little experience in the rough and tumble of presidential campaigns. If Mrs. Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, the Republican Party will go all out to emphasize the contradictions in her ideology and to drag up all her negatives. But, Karl Rove is now on the sidelines. John McCain, the lead GOP candidate running against her is hampered by his hawkish approach to Iraq. There is just one twist to this story and that is Rudy Giuliani, the 'hero' of New York. In a general poll a few weeks ago, Giuliani beat Hillary Clinton 48 % to 41 %. But it is hard to imagine that Giuliani, who is a social Liberal, could win the Republican primaries. Unless the Conservative Christians are pushed aside because of the backlash to the Bush presidency or they support a losing Mitt Romney and are thus outmaneuvered. Even though many Americans are leery about Hillary's ambition, they do not consider her incompetent. Nancy Pelosi's popularity actually helps Hillary's claim that Americans are ready for a woman president. If it happens, a lot will change. The author is professor of international relations at Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.